Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Portland Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the nextfew months, but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Center at the said in its latesgt California and Metro Forecast released Wednesday. The forecasf said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percenrt early next year, and will remainj in double-digits until the end of 2011. The center produces quarterly economic forecasts of theUnited States, Californi a and nine metro from Sacramento to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay In the Sacramento area, unemployment will rise from 11.1 percen t this year to peak at 11.4 percent next year, before dippingf to 10.
2 percent in 2011, the report Unemployment is expected to reach 9.2 percenyt in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to rebounde in the third quarter of next when job growth will improvseto 0.8 percent. A “strong rebound is expected to take placd in professional and and educational and health services the report saidof “Job growth is expecter to have its first positiver full year at 2.0 percenr in 2011.” Sacramento’s real personak income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 perceny next year.
San Jose and San Francisco will be the firsr metro areas in Northern California to return totheire pre-recession employment levels, in the second and thirsd quarters of 2012, respectively, the study Sacramento and Merced will be among the last north state metr areas to regain peak employment, in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is last, with a return expectede in the second quarterof 2014. The Centra l Valley will be hard hit by the combinatio n of recent state tax increases and massive expectedfbudget cuts, the Business Forecastinv Center said.
“The state budget crisis is a dangerous aftershock to a regionm still reeling from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff Michael, director of the Businessd Forecasting Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disastere area, but most of its “economic shocks are cyclical in nature rather than permanent changesx such as closed military bases,” the news release • Construction continues to lead job losses in percentage terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the decline in 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this year. • Retaipl sales will not return to their 2007 levekuntil 2011.
• New car and trucok sales will fallbelow 1.06 million in after exceeding 2 million for most of the Sales will gradually increase as the economy reaching 1.46 million next and 1.73 million in 2011. • Housiny starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,00p units, more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housinf starts will be back to 100,0009 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013. Health care is the only sectoe that will not shrinkthis year. The gain of 13,000 healtn care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowest growtyh this decade. • Personalk income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
Nonfarm payrolls will declineby 1,020,0000 jobs statewide during the two-year • The California economy will finallgy hit bottom in the fourth quartedr of this year, and will begin a multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 befor e many key economic indicators such as unemploymenft return tohealthy levels. • The state’ss recession should end in the last quarter ofthis year, but the job markegt will remain weak through most of next year.